Shooting percentage
also: SH% · S%
Goals as a share of shots on goal. Half of PDO, and the half that regresses hardest.
SH% = goals / shots on goalMissed and blocked shots are excluded; only shots that reached the goaltender count. League shooting percentage sits around 10% and has drifted slowly upward for a decade as shot selection has improved.
At the team level over a season it is mostly luck. A team shooting 12% is not finishing better than a team shooting 8.5% in any way that persists into next season, and the gap between them is worth roughly thirty goals in the standings. That is the single largest source of teams being overrated or underrated by their record.
At the individual level it is more real. The best finishers sustain a percentage above their expected rate over thousands of shots, and comparing a shooter's percentage with the expected goals of the shots he took is how you separate finishing from shot selection.
Projecting a hot team's shooting percentage forward. It is the most aggressively mean-reverting number in the sport, which is exactly what PDO exists to point out.
Where to get it
Related
Shooting percentage from the API
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