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High-danger chances (HDCF)

also: HDSV% · high danger chances · HDCF · HDCA · HDCF%

Shots from the slot: how teams count them (HDCF, HDCA) and how goalies stop them (HDSV%). About a quarter of all shots, and the ones that decide games.

Formula
HDSV% = high-danger saves / high-danger shots against

High danger means the home-plate area in front of the net: inside 25 feet and within 45 degrees of centre. That definition captures roughly a quarter of all shots, and by this API's own goalie rows the league saves them at about 87% against about 90% everywhere else.

It is the most predictive single slice of goaltending, because it has the most signal per shot. A goalie's overall save percentage is dominated by shots almost anyone stops.

The same zone matters at team level: high-danger chances for and against say more about a team's structure than raw shot counts, which is why a team can win the Corsi battle and lose the game badly.

HDCF is the number of high-danger chances a team creates, HDCA the number it allows, and HDCF% its share of the two. This API does not return a team HDCF column; every shot in get_shot_map carries its rink coordinates, so counting the shots inside the zone gives it directly.

The common mistake

Small samples. A quarter of shots is a quarter of the sample, so a goalie's high-danger number swings hard over ten games and means very little before about thirty.

Where to get it

Related

High-danger chances (HDCF) from the API

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